Texas Hold'm Strategy - Fold or Play Part 2

Part 2 of a 2 part article (Part 1)

Ok you know the scenario, and if not go back and reread it once again.

The actual hand played out like this. The chip leader who pushed all in and had Ad-Kd. The player second in chips called and has JcJh. Now the decision is to you in the big blind third in chips and facing a call or fold for your entire stack with QQ.

The person in the BB folded. The flop came down Ah - 6c - 10d. Turn 9h and River was a harmless 2c.

As for me, I always play to win, not survive, not eke out a place in the money, but play to win. Obviously I would have lost here and gotten zero. The person who folded made the money and ended up no better than when he started the hand in 3rd.

Now when I say I play to win that means just that. There will be times when you have to take a risk (yes gamble) and truly hope for the best. To win a tournament, satellite or SNG or whatever, there will be times when you are 50-50 and need to get lucky. Obviously you want to minimize these spots but the larger the field the more likely the scenario.

Some responses from some friends of mine and a hint from the person who won the whole thing. First of all one of my friends said " To me the only move was to fold. Top three made money and there is a chance that the 2nd in chips gets knocked out (which he did) and you get paid for folding. Besides even if the smaller stack won the other guy would be short stacked and in risk of being knocked out the next hand or so.

Now for those of you who frequent other blogs you have heard and read about $EV, cEV, -EV fold EV and +EV. Another friend stated. "The cash equity move is to fold." There is a valid argument for that but then I revert back to the way I play and another friend said.
"Considering I'm playing every tournament to win, not cash, I make this call. I get the hole guaranteed money and all, but that's not playing to win in my book. Most likely first place is taking home 50 percent, I'm not looking for the 20 percent third-place money."

Now for the analytical aspect from my conservative friend. You have to try to determine what the other players at the table could have here. Would the 1st player move all-in with aces or kings? Most likely not. I would put them on a weak ace. Now the 2nd person would be calling with what? He obviously couldn’t raise so he most likely had a high pocket pair because why risk everything on mid to low pp? To me I would have originally put the 2nd player on 10s or 9s figuring the guy was either trying to steal or really did have a weak ace putting me in about a 60-40 situation. I still would fold since i would be gauranteed money if they 2nd place chips gets knocked out.

Finally, the man who made the play and his thinking. Since I know the guy who made the move this is what he told me. I took a risk no doubt, but I kinda had the image of a wild man, which I set up by showing some weak hands but had really been playing conservative overall. I figured they would think I was trying to steal and there are only 2 hands im really worried about it Aces or Kings, otherwise im 50-50 at worst or im dominating someone with any ace or king in there hand. Sometimes, especially online players, just get overly aggressive and fail to consider possiblities and think everyone is trying to steal at all times. I try to use this to my advantage and move all in at times when its not called for hoping for a call with a marginal hand to my powerhouse.

Some will say that in the long run folding is the right move. I can not agree with them more. However as always it really depends on your situation. I refer you back to Paul of Poker’s posting on bankrolls. The right move to make if you play for the long run and in terms of protecting your bankroll is folding. However, if you are in with a minimal bankroll you do have to take some risks and this is one of those places where it’s not that bad to do. Also, sometimes you just have to risk it. Remember, bet to win.